a.) Looking at the sharp change both in DT and in DCO2 between 20,000 years before present (ybp) and 10,000 ybp, and assuming that DCO2 = kDT, find k. Using your value of k, what temperature would you predict when the CO2 concentrations reaches 380 ppm, as it did last year.
b.) From these data, describe the nature of the Holocene interglacial period, the one we are presently experiencing (How long, how warm, how stable...). Now describe the nature of the Eemian interglacial period, the one that began about 135,000 ybp.
Ref: Aubrecht, G.J., Energy, 2nd Ed. p 330. Figure from IPCC Summary Report, 1999 Cambridge University Press.
Special Problem #2: The
table
given
here lists the 10 warmest
years in the century from 1893-1992. If the temperatures are
governed by a uniform random process, then the probability that the
warmest
year would occur in any particular decade would be 10%.
a.) Following this logic, what is the probability
that 7 of the ten warmest years in the century from 1893-1992 would
occur
in its final decade from 1983-1992? As you can see, it actually
happened.
b.) One can continue less conservatively to note
that all 8 of the 8 warmest years are in the last 13 years of the
century
1980-1992. What is the probability of this happening if the
temperatures
were random?
Table 15.4 The ten warmest years on record through 1992 were: 1990-15.47, 1991-15.41, 1981-15.39, 1988-15.35, 1987-15.32, 1983-15.29, 1980-15.28, 1989-15.25, 1973-15.19, 1986-15.16. Hansen, J. & Lebedeff, S. Geophys. Res. Lett. 15, 323 (1988) and Journal of Geophys. Res. 92, 13345 (1987)
